ETS - it's got the world talking

Did I say talking. I mean shitting themselves.

McCain is in the same spot as Nelson. He has to decide whether to send the economy into freefall on a whim for no appreciable provalble gain, or not. Be unlike Nelson he is choosing wrong.

Nelson is not only right. He's on a winner. Be grateful that at this moment this country can produce a leader that has nuts, when the US can't. I expect a wave if immigration from the US come November.

The entire media is spinning it that Turnbull and Hunt rapped Nelson's knuckles last week for suggesting the ETS could wait, or the cap and trade idea was not the best and the Nelson fell back into line. I don't buy it. Where was the public retraction? The guy is silent. He's taking annual leave! This saga is only just beginning and it is the duty of the conservative commentariat to get behind the guy. No exceptions.

Nelson has time to assert himself and should not be afraid to subtly adjust his position. if the Mayo bi-election gets a swing to the Libs on his watch Turnbull's position will be weaker again. Turnbull cannot challenge before then - like bull at a gate. There's is a reason why he didn't make it up the first time. The parliamentary party dont trust him to consult them. That hasn't changed. His presumption to lead the leader on last Thur's 7:30 report can't have helped.

From Nelson's form to date you know he can suck up as much pressure as Howard for as long as he wants and still get his message to the electorate.

Pollies face-off on climate

UPDATE: Whatditellya? Hunt and Turnbull are the ones who's green images are on the line, and they are trying to manipulate Nelson's position through the media. Or are they clarifying it? I don't know. The green paper comes out on Wednesday. I think they will find common ground.

Whether Liberal's 2012 ETS deadline has a flexible or fixed, the main thing is that Nelson has got everyone to agree that if China and India dont make significant sacrifices neither should we. This position is a significant shift from the "act first and lead" position - the implausible position implicitly supported by anyone courting the green vote.

Nelson's position was Howard's defense in not signing Kyoto, which Turbull opposed. It was Rudd's position after Garrett screwed up during the campaign. But Rudd forged ahead and signed Kyoto without requiring the Chinese to sign up to even non-binding targets as they had promised to consider at APEC (thanks to Howard and Bush). Now Rudd is saying the G8 climate talks was a failure because the developing countries have not fallen into line. He's making wiggle room.

No one is admitting it, but everyone's position is moving slightly to the right, and Nelson is leading (the politicians). They are all cooling slightly on the issue of warming and (sorry to keep going with the metaphor but) this issue is one that needs to stay hot if it is going to maintain a head of steam. It's panic driven. If we all start acting rationally it will lose all politicial momentum. The world is actually cooling. I'm sitting here freezing and I want cheap power so I can leave the heater on dammit!

UPDATE: Bolt has dug up the quotes I alluded to here. Bolt is pushing the idea that Turnbull disagrees with Nelson (as did the Aus) whereas Turnbull is denying this and Nelson is not talking. Bolt sides with Nelson. I honestly think this was Nelson's whole ploy. His statement came straight after the ABC publically admitted that GW believers were embarrassing in their religious zeal. And after the Hollowmen (the latest ABC spoof about Rudd) was announced. The media momentum has shifted. Nelson has played for the conservative media's support and got it. They had always plumped for Turnbull in the past. That's what had to end.